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Communities and climate change

Published - November 8, 2011

Husky dogs in Greenland

The consequences of climate change are more serious, more visual and more indisputable in Northern Greenland than almost anywhere else in the world. Clive Bowman explains more. Read more

There are still large uncertainties associated with climate change impacts; however, the social impacts are already evident.

Northern Europe

At first, climate change may appear advantageous to Europe’s northernmost reaches; the demand for heating energy will decrease, and crop yields and forest growth may increase. However, it is becoming clear that eventually the disadvantages will outweigh the benefits. Changes taking place elsewhere in the world will be reflected in Northern Europe.

Adapting

In recent years, due to reduced snow coverage and delayed ice formation across the fjords, traditional dog sled routes between Northern Greenland’s settlements have become inaccessible. To overcome this, local dog owners in some areas have identified and mapped problem areas. They’ve agreed community-funded hard-engineering solutions, which have been tested on various routes.

This is an example of a successful community-led adaptation strategy made by Qaasuitsup municipality residents in Greenland, which focuses on adaptation measures to maintain routes to the Icefjord fishing ground and to preserve the traditional dog-sled culture in Ilulissat.

The whole process was supported by the Clim-ATIC project.

Communities

Clim-ATIC was an climate change adaptation project led by the Centre for Mountain Studies at the University of the Highlands and Islands,Scotland, with a particular emphasis on helping community stakeholders identify how climate change may bring opportunities to enhance the sustainability of their communities inEurope’s Northern Periphery.

To do this, it introduced a three-step programme to enable community stakeholders to identify direct and indirect local climate change impacts and implement relevant adaptation activities:

  1. Investigation, collation and communication of relevant information on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on small peripheral rural communities.
  2. Development of adaptation strategies by these communities to avoid, or reduce, the negative impacts of climate change, while taking advantage of the opportunities.
  3. Implementation of local adaptation demonstration projects with a focus on trans-national exchanges of knowledge.

By evaluating the actual development and implementation of a number of real adaptation activities carried out by several different communities, the Clim-ATIC project attempted to identify and understand the issues relevant to stakeholders at a local level.

All lessons and experiences from project activities were recorded in an extensive set of case studies, podcasts and training documents, and are now freely available on a new resource website Climate Change Adaptation.

Two case studies that demonstrate the Clim-ATIC approach are:

Partnership approach

Clim-ATIC was a three-year project, running from March 2008 to February 2011, with a budget of €2.4 million. The project was awarded 60% funding from the European Regional Development Fund, through the Northern Periphery Programme.

It had 12 partners contributing to the strategies from five countries: Scotland, Sweden, Finland, Norway and Greenland.

The project partners were a mix of academic and public sector organisations working with a range of community and business stakeholder groups from each region, to:

  • explore the potential for different community sectors to develop adaptive capacity to climate change impacts;
  • deliver real adaptations that provide local economic and social advantages.

Case study one

The potential economic impacts of snow melt and river flow changes in Finnish Lapland on tourism and flood protection were identified as a cause for concern. In response, changes in snow and floods were simulated by the Finnish Environment Institute using several climate scenarios, including a conceptual hydrological model incorporating snow. Projected climate change impacts inNorthern Finlandby 2050 include:

  • average temperature will increase by 2.3–3.8ºC;
  • average rainfall will increase by 7–17%;
  • amount of snow will decrease;
  • length of snow season will shorten by about one week every 15 years;
  • spring floods will occur earlier.

There are still large uncertainties associated with climate change impacts; however, the social impacts are already evident. Tourism vulnerability scenarios have been developed with data available from the Regional Council of Lapland. Climate change impacts will be significantly larger in more southern Rovaniemi than in Kittilä.

In Rovaniemi, the risk of a ‘black’ Christmas increases as the start of the permanent snow cover is delayed. It is worth noting that maximum values of snow decrease less than the averages, whereas the minimum values decrease more. This means that, although winters with little snow will become more common in future, there will still be winters with large amounts of snow, and the variation between years will increase.

The data prepared by the Finnish Environment Institute were also used to produce flood hazard maps for Rovaniemi and Kittila. These are now being used by land use planners to help plan to prevent floods in those areas that could be flooded, and to help plan more effectively which areas are not suitable for building on in future.

The Clim-ATIC project also worked with local tourism stakeholders to identify impacts and communicate them more broadly within the sector and to the general public. It utilised a number of innovative communication tools including visual public art, in the form of a visual light display called ’Climatable’ and a number of short films made by students from the University of Lapland.

Case study two

Another example of potential economic impacts highlighted by the Clim-ATIC project is in the county of Sognog Fjordane, Norway. It is probably the most typical (together with Finnmark) peripheral county in Norway, with no real cities. The county covers 18,623 km2 with 109,000 inhabitants, and is divided into 26 municipalities, of which 24 are coastal. People live far apart (six people per square kilometre) and in small communities. The county has a large primary sector (farming, fish farming), and a long-standing fjord tourism sector. Glacier and national park tourism has also developed over recent years. Jostedalsbreen – the largest glacier on the European mainland – is situated in Sogn og Fjordane, but all (including Jostedalsbreen) of Norway’s glaciers are currently receding, partly due to climate change. In addition, the county is also well known for its large amount of hydro power production.

The Norwegian government report entitled “Adapting to Climate Change” outlines the climate-related challenges facing Norwegian communities, and the potential adaptations to reduce risks and vulnerabilities. In the report, three climate projections were combined to provide an insight into the potential climate change impacts that could be experienced over the coming century:

  • Annual average temperatures in Norway are projected to rise 2.3°C to 4.6°C. The largest increases will occur in wintertime and in Northern Norway, the smallest in summertime and in western Norway.
  • Annual precipitation is expected to increase by 5% to 30% by the year 2100, but with large seasonal and regional variations. More days with heavy precipitation are also expected.
  • Ocean temperatures will rise along the entire Norwegian coastline and in theNorth Sea. Ocean acidification will worsen, with a likely drop in pH value by 0.5 units.
  • By the year 2100, sea levels could rise 50–100 cm alongNorway’s southern and western coastlines, 40–90 cm inNorthern Norwayand 20–70 cm in the Oslo Fjord and Trondheim Fjord.

These projections will have a range of consequences for the county of Sognog Fjordane. One area of great concern is the potential increase in landslides, which are often triggered by heavy precipitation events. In recent years, the number of landslides has increased, causing disruption to infrastructure and even casualties.

In response to this increased threat, the Sogn og Fjordane early warning system project set out to develop, demonstrate and test a location-based early warning system that made use of modern communication technologies. Multi-hazard early warning systems utilise various media and communication tools to inform the public about impending hazards and provide guidance on the precautions to take. They can operate at regional, national and international levels, and can contribute significantly to reducing the risks of personal injury, loss of life, and damage to property and the environment. Early warnings also enable local/regional authorities to initiate evacuations more efficiently.

A warning exercise was set up and took place on 10 June 2010, in Aurland. The event was advertised locally in newspapers and radio, and on Twitter and Facebook. The warning exercise was held in parallel with a tabletop exercise focusing on local authorities’ abilities to respond to extreme weather events. During the test, 2,500 mobile phones received the alert as a text message and 322 fixed line phones in Aurland received the alert as a voice message. The warning exercise was visible on Facebook for two hours and received 201,849 viewings.

The exercise was deemed a success and highlighted that:

  • A modern population warning system must reach everyone in the specific geographic area of concern, both residents and temporary visitors.
  • It is absolutely vital that phone-based warnings incorporate all phone companies, and not just certain networks.
  • The success of a people-centred early warning system is linked to the use of modern technologies to convey timely and understandable instructions to those at risk.

The success of this demonstration further highlighted the need for a broader strategic adaptation plan for the county. A series of consultations took place to engage stakeholders and to ensure that the development of the plan was current and relevant. The resulting Climate Plan is the product of cooperation between the County Governor’s office, the association of local and regional authorities in Sogn og Fjordane, and the Western Norway Research Institute (Vestlandsforsking).

Local stakeholders were involved in developing the plan, to ensure a sense of ownership, and also given responsibilities for implementing and following up the measures in the plan. It was decided that it should be a comprehensive Climate Plan including both mitigation and adaptation. However, the average values presented by the scenarios raised questions as to their usefulness. It was felt that it was very important to know what the potential extremes could be for precipitation, temperature etc. And thus more detailed scenarios were sought, but the cost/benefit ratio of having these developed was considered too great, largely due to the increasing uncertainty factor.

The whole process was very resource-intensive, and it was not possible to conduct vulnerability assessments for all the thematic areas described in the plan. It was therefore important to prioritise areas and establish what type of assessments should be made. Institutional capacity and expertise had to be addressed, and in response a climate coordinator has been appointed by the municipality. However, it is one thing to have developed a comprehensive plan, it is another to carry out the aims and monitor activities.

Clive Bowman
Centre for Mountain Studies
University of the Highlands and Islands, Scotland